Analysis of the most affected countries in North America

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days

Confirmed

Dead

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)

Active

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

US

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,577,147$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.39 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,589,475.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 45.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,589,475.4\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $94,702$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(7.72 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{95,348.6}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 43.8)}}\) (asimptote \(95,348.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,184,027$ on 2020-05-21

Canada

Population $37,742,154$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $82,742$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(6.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86,471.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 49.3)}}\) (asimptote \(86,471.1\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,267$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(320 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,706.0}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 46.0)}}\) (asimptote \(6,706.0\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34,744$ on 2020-05-21

Panama

Population $4,314,767$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,116$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(905 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,833.8}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10,833.8\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $291$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(23.6 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{306.5}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 45.7)}}\) (asimptote \(306.5\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,580$ on 2020-05-21

Mexico

Population $128,932,753$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $59,567$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(1.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,561.2}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 60.3)}}\) (asimptote \(100,561.2\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,510$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(186 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,205.0}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 52.4)}}\) (asimptote \(11,205.0\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12,905$ on 2020-05-21

Dominican Republic

Population $10,847,910$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,657$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(884 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,191.1}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 52.4)}}\) (asimptote \(17,191.1\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $448$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(65 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{454.8}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 33.4)}}\) (asimptote \(454.8\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,843$ on 2020-05-21

Honduras

Population $9,904,607$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,204$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(73.3 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,385.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 70.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,385.3\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $156$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(13.8 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{222.6}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 45.7)}}\) (asimptote \(222.6\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,651$ on 2020-05-21

Cuba

Population $11,326,616$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,908$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(325 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,906.6}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 29.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,906.6\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $80$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(13.8 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82.2}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 27.6)}}\) (asimptote \(82.2\))

Active

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $225$ on 2020-05-21

El Salvador

Population $6,486,205$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,640$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(35.1 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,000.7}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 66.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,000.7\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $33$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(2.11 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.1\) days)

Active

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,063$ on 2020-05-21

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)

Cuba recovered 73%
Jamaica recovered 19%

Jamaica

Population $2,961,167$

Confirmed

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $534$ on 2020-05-21

Best fit exponential: \(44.9 \times 10^{0.017t}\) (doubling rate \(17.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{537.3}{1 + 10^{-0.068 (t - 41.8)}}\) (asimptote \(537.3\))

Dead

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-05-21

Active

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $344$ on 2020-05-21