Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,577,147$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.39 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(20.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,589,475.4}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 45.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,589,475.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $94,702$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(7.72 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{95,348.6}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 43.8)}}\) (asimptote \(95,348.6\))
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,184,027$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $82,742$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(6.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(19.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{86,471.1}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 49.3)}}\) (asimptote \(86,471.1\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,267$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(320 \times 10^{0.020t}\) (doubling rate \(14.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,706.0}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 46.0)}}\) (asimptote \(6,706.0\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $34,744$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $10,116$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(905 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,833.8}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.4)}}\) (asimptote \(10,833.8\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $291$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(23.6 \times 10^{0.016t}\) (doubling rate \(18.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{306.5}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 45.7)}}\) (asimptote \(306.5\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,580$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $59,567$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(1.39 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,561.2}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 60.3)}}\) (asimptote \(100,561.2\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,510$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(186 \times 10^{0.028t}\) (doubling rate \(10.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,205.0}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 52.4)}}\) (asimptote \(11,205.0\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $12,905$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $13,657$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(884 \times 10^{0.018t}\) (doubling rate \(16.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{17,191.1}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 52.4)}}\) (asimptote \(17,191.1\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $448$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(65 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{454.8}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 33.4)}}\) (asimptote \(454.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $5,843$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,204$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(73.3 \times 10^{0.026t}\) (doubling rate \(11.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,385.3}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 70.1)}}\) (asimptote \(8,385.3\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $156$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(13.8 \times 10^{0.019t}\) (doubling rate \(15.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{222.6}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 45.7)}}\) (asimptote \(222.6\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,651$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,908$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(325 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,906.6}{1 + 10^{-0.052 (t - 29.9)}}\) (asimptote \(1,906.6\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $80$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(13.8 \times 10^{0.015t}\) (doubling rate \(19.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{82.2}{1 + 10^{-0.057 (t - 27.6)}}\) (asimptote \(82.2\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $225$ on 2020-05-21
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $1,640$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(35.1 \times 10^{0.029t}\) (doubling rate \(10.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,000.7}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 66.6)}}\) (asimptote \(5,000.7\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $33$ on 2020-05-21
Best fit exponential: \(2.11 \times 10^{0.023t}\) (doubling rate \(13.1\) days)
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,063$ on 2020-05-21
